Are Apple iPad sales estimates wrong?

There is a high-stakes guessing game afoot regarding Apple iPad sales-to-date estimates and, of more importance, projections about how well the iPad will sell in the newly-created tablet computer marketplace.

On the first question, that of how many iPads have been pre-sold on the Apple Web site so far, there are differing opinions. A well-known and respected blog site (Deagol’s AAPL Model ) has estimated that first-day sales, actually pre-orders, on Apple’s sales site numbered about 120,000, but then dropped off and finished the weekend with just 152,000 pre-orders. Another analyst has said that he feels that the Deagol numbers are wrong. That analyst says, “That number is low.” The second analyst, like the first, is using client information to estimate the number of orders, but comes to significantly different conclusions, according to The Globe and Mail. Apple, of course and as usual, is saying nothing.

As for iPad sales once the tablet computer marketplace gets rolling, there is the same disparity among analysts. Some, though not willing to say anything directly against Apple’s chances with the iPad given their history with the iPod and iPhone, look at a history in which a tablet computer revolution has always failed and say little or nothing about the iPad’s chances, with the little they might say on the low side of marketplace estimates. Other estimates are such that they portend a stupendous tablet market for all the manufacturers involved, though most agree that the iPad will have at least an initial edge due to consumer awareness of and interest in the iPad.

Regardless, everyone will be guessing until Apple begins to release numbers. Analysts and pundits can guess 120,000 first day sales or 400,000, and any of them may second-guess any other. Industry experts may feel that the overall tablet computer marketplace is 70 million a year or higher (those estimates exist) or feel that sales will not be much higher than they have been in previous runs at building a tablet market, and there is no way yet to determine who is right and who is wrong. It is apparent that the publishing industry is pinning big hopes on the iPad, and obvious that Apple would like to see sales around the highest estimates. But, in truth, we will not know what iPad sales are really like until Apple tells us. In the end, it’s up to the consumer, who will vote with their wallets, as always.

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